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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
https://goo.gl/HFrx8a
My first winter outlook of the season. For the Northern Hemisphere, looking at climate drivers and seasonal forecasts.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
More unsettled and cooler weather arriving in the Alps from 19/20 October.

Meanwhile Met Office has just put up a series of weather warnings for strong winds for north and west of UK.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Jellybeans1000 wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
A-Basin, Colorado, became the first ski resort to open in North America on Fri 13 Oct.

A fairly early opening for them.

The season is a rollin'.


Nope, Timberline in Oregon was the first to open.


A-Basin opened at 859am on Fri 13 Oct.
Timberline (excluding permanent snowfield) opened at 900am on Fri 13 Oct.
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Good photo from A-Basin today.

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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Whitegold wrote:
Jellybeans1000 wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
A-Basin, Colorado, became the first ski resort to open in North America on Fri 13 Oct.

A fairly early opening for them.

The season is a rollin'.


Nope, Timberline in Oregon was the first to open.


A-Basin opened at 859am on Fri 13 Oct.
Timberline (excluding permanent snowfield) opened at 900am on Fri 13 Oct.

Palmer counts. Time difference doesn't matter. Timberline opened first.
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Light snowfall at the end of the week for the glaciers. Maybe 5-15cm down to about 2300m.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, then much warmer again ?
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Cool weather and a possibility of decent snow fall in BC Canada, and down the Cascade range end of this week into the weekend. Some snow possible interior BC and into Idaho/Wyoming too.
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Snowfall and brief cold snap in Alps shunted back till Sunday before milder weather returns.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Snowfall and brief cold snap in Alps shunted back till Sunday before milder weather returns.


According to which forecasts? The ones im looking at, for the austrian alps at least, says even colder after sunday?
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Lots of Robins in my garden still. Therefore, getting my powder skis ready....
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@staffsan, looking at the ensemble output on GFS there is a fairly strong indication that a brief spell of cooler than average temperatures will be followed by milder than average temperatures.

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Get your paddles or your boards ready depending on your outlook...the atmospheric rivers are on their way!

http://www.king5.com/weather/blog/western-washington-braces-for-heavy-rain-strong-winds/483684994

https://watchers.news/2017/10/18/atmospheric-rivers-eye-pacific-northwest-and-british-columbia-heavy-rain-expected/
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
My son is heading to Hintertux on Saturday for a week of race training. Bergfex are showing snowfall and strong winds. I hope it doesn't disrupt him too much.

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Snowfall has been pushed back arriving Saturday to Monday. Could be quite heavy in eastern Alps with snowline dropping down to 1100m at times. As Gaza says winds look strong at the start of the week.

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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead

EC 10 day snowfall accumulation shows around 50-70cm of snow for parts of the Alps, with the highest accumulation in Switzerland.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Does anyone have a view on how Tux is affected by the strength of wind shown? Monday looks particularly bad.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Gaza wrote:
Does anyone have a view on how Tux is affected by the strength of wind shown? Monday looks particularly bad.

Are those Bergfex wind predictions, persistent or gusts? I have never been to Hintertux, but I do know 60kph winds aren't great for chairlift operations, by experience. Across the lift line winds are much worse than winds that run up or down with the lift line.
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Gaza wrote:
Does anyone have a view on how Tux is affected by the strength of wind shown? Monday looks particularly bad.


It's going to be shut would be my guess based on the forecast and the height!
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@Gaza, most of the lifts are either gondolas or t-bars, but it‘s pretty exposed up there. Obviously you are way above the treeline. I can’t imagine it would be much fun on Monday with snowfall and high winds even if it was open. Maybe sprint training in the valley instead!
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Chamonix



Zermatt.



Hintertux

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen wrote:
@Gaza, most of the lifts are either gondolas or t-bars, but it‘s pretty exposed up there. Obviously you are way above the treeline. I can’t imagine it would be much fun on Monday with snowfall and high winds even if it was open. Maybe sprint training in the valley instead!


I think you are right. Sad Sad Even if it is open I can't see them taking the younger kids (my son has just turned 10) up the mountain.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Gaza wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
@Gaza, most of the lifts are either gondolas or t-bars, but it‘s pretty exposed up there. Obviously you are way above the treeline. I can’t imagine it would be much fun on Monday with snowfall and high winds even if it was open. Maybe sprint training in the valley instead!


I think you are right. Sad Sad Even if it is open I can't see them taking the younger kids (my son has just turned 10) up the mountain.


I think 1 or 2 down days a week down to winds in Autumn are to be "expected" when skiing the high glaciers.
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kitenski wrote:
Gaza wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
@Gaza, most of the lifts are either gondolas or t-bars, but it‘s pretty exposed up there. Obviously you are way above the treeline. I can’t imagine it would be much fun on Monday with snowfall and high winds even if it was open. Maybe sprint training in the valley instead!


I think you are right. Sad Sad Even if it is open I can't see them taking the younger kids (my son has just turned 10) up the mountain.


I think 1 or 2 down days a week down to winds in Autumn are to be "expected" when skiing the high glaciers.


I can't speak for the other glaciers, but don't recall Stubai being shut more than 3-4 days a season (Sept-June) for wind/weather. Certainly doesn't shut anything like once a week during the Autumn months.
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@clarky999, interesting, I've only skied/watched what happens at Tignes and that seems to get regular down days
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Whitegold wrote:
Good photo from A-Basin today.


Always strikes me as funny how many people dash for the slopes early season when the snow is rubbish, but you go towards the end of the season when there is often great snow and hardly anyone around. Good for people like me who've learnt to be patient Very Happy
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Snowfall amounts for Sunday Monday being scaled back on this evening’s GFS, but that could just be nerves.

At the far end of the output both GFS and ECM starting to chuck out some cold options for early November. That of course is FI...
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Bergfex meanwhile showing heavy snow and strong winds for Hintertux Sunday through Tuesday.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Snowing in Whistler and in the Cascades right now. Freezing levels will be an issue though. Set to warm back up going into Monday. Patience... Toofy Grin

http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/crazy-snow-whistler-blackcomb-2017-photos

https://www.crystalmountainresort.com/the-mountain/mountain-report/webcams/

https://www.mtbachelor.com/live-cams/
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
nozawaonsen wrote:
Bergfex meanwhile showing heavy snow and strong winds for Hintertux Sunday through Tuesday.




Not looking great for the kids. My son was looking forward to trying out his catsuit but it looks like he'll be in full ski gear and thermals!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
GFS 06z goes from upper temp anomalies of +8C next week on 27th Oct to -8C just two days later. Followed by a full on northerly into month end. 10 days out is unlikely to verify, but certainly a big swing from GFS this morning.

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

Always strikes me as funny how many people dash for the slopes early season when the snow is rubbish, but you go towards the end of the season when there is often great snow and hardly anyone around. Good for people like me who've learnt to be patient

@doddles,
Actually I have found in recent years that snow at the start has been pretty acceptable. Obviously I stick to the high resorts.
At the end in last few years it is almost guaranteed slush.
I cover both bases; out 25/11 and last trip ends 21/4.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The last few GFS runs have had a good scatter of ensembles going for something decidedly cold in the Alps at the end of October start of November.

ECM last night and this morning has been hinting at the same for the end of the month.

12z GFS op has just sent the jet ploughing down from the north at the end of October...



What cards will ECM play later this evening?


http://youtube.com/v/ZIxuNgT2PHU
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12z GFS has cold and snowy weather hitting the Alps from next Sunday for a week.

Obviously the further you go into that forecast the less confidence you can have in the outcome, but a cold spell as we move into November is cropping up pretty frequently in the output at present.
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Hintertux due half a metre next 48hrs (in the World according to Bergfex) Smile
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pablito69 wrote:
Hintertux due half a metre next 48hrs (in the World according to Bergfex) Smile


Really hoping this will hold! Would be great if its open down to sommerberg in 2 weeks from now! Very Happy
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
This evening’s ECM was not showing the same enthusiasm for that end of month cold spell.
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Although back in play this morning...
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Wow yeah, bergfex is saying about 1 metre for Hintertux on Sunday! Obviously to be taken with a serious pinch of salt at the moment, but still...

At the moment Ive got a few weeks of free time so I've been eagerly watching the weather and the cost of flights hoping to find a couple days of sunshine after a snowfall that correlates with cheap flights so that I can go to Hintertux. Fingers crossed it works out because uni interviews mean I can't book a normal ski holiday this year...
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